The religiously unaffiliated are no longer growing in the U.S. What do church leaders need to know about the changing religious landscape?
By Aaron Earls
For the past 20-30 years, the story of religious demographics in the United States has been the rise of the religiously unaffiliated or the “nones.” The percentage of those who choose “none of the above” when asked about their religious identity has grown from single-digit percentages in the early ’90s to around a third of all Americans in recent years.
The increase in nones has coincided with a decrease in the percentage of Americans who say they’re Christian. Upwards of 90% of Americans previously claimed Christianity as their religion. That has now fallen to less than 2 in 3.
The latest research, however, indicates changes to religious identification trends in the U.S. Most major religious demographic studies now show a decline or, at the very least, a plateauing of the religiously unaffiliated in the U.S.
Most major religious demographic studies now show a decline or, at the very least, a plateauing of the religiously unaffiliated in the U.S. Share on XOn the low end, Gallup has had nones hovering between 20-21% since 2017. The General Social Survey (GSS) noted its first percentage drop among nones, from 29% to 27%, in 2022. Pew Research recorded a decline from 31% to 28% in 2023. The Cooperative Election Study (CES), the only survey previously indicating growth among the religiously unaffiliated, has now tracked a leveling off between 34% and 36% from 2020 to 2023.
Previous Lifeway Research articles have broached the question: Is the rise of the nones over?
Religious researcher Ryan Burge says it’s now “crystal clear… the share of non-religious Americans has stopped rising in any meaningful way.”
If that’s the case, how should pastors and church leaders be prepared for the next era of religion in America? Keep these five probable outcomes in mind.
1. Continued but slower growth for the nones
Even if the nones have stopped growing completely, they’ll still make up a larger percentage of the U.S., based strictly on age demographics. Younger generations are no longer becoming more religiously unaffiliated, but they remain much more so than previous generations.
According to the CES, the nones have continued to grow among the Silent generation and Boomers but not Gen X, millennials, and Gen Z. The percentage of nones among the two youngest generations (42%), however, is still twice as high as the percentage among the oldest generation (21%).
This means that as more older (and statistically more likely to be religious) Americans die, the overall percentage of religiously unaffiliated Americans will rise even if no new person ever joins their ranks.
This group will still be a major factor in the religious identity of the United States.
2. Growth in replacement religions
If younger generations are becoming more likely to identify with a religion, time will tell what religions that will be. Some of those are likely to be other established world religions. The CES found Gen Z four times as likely as other generations to identify as Muslim.
Others may gravitate toward new religious movements, including global groups that sound on the surface as if they belong to orthodox Christianity but have significant theological differences. These groups have begun making inroads in the U.S. and can often exploit some of the shallow theological understanding among Christians.
Additionally, some may find their faith home in the occult or New Age religion. Still others may embrace a religious attachment to cultural movements like social justice or politically focused groups like QAnon.
A decline in the religious unaffiliated doesn’t mean churches can relax about young adults dropping out or changing their religious identity. Instead of becoming a none, they may move directly into a different religion.
3. Increased religious diversity
Church leaders should not expect the end of the rise of the nones to mean an automatic restoration of Christianity as the default religion of the nation. With the continued decline of Christianity, the plateauing of the nones, and the likely increase of the share of Americans embracing other faiths, the religious diversity of the U.S. will grow in the coming years.
“Churches will have to learn to navigate cultural spaces that are no longer designed for a Christian majority, as that will likely no longer exist.” — @WardrobeDoor Share on XThe makeup of younger generations may give a sneak peek at the future demographics. We should expect Christians, including Protestants and Catholics, to be around 40% of the population. Another 40% would be the religious unaffiliated, including those who are nothing in particular and a smaller percentage who are atheist or agnostic. The remaining 20% would be comprised of around equal parts other world religions and everything else.
Churches will have to learn to navigate cultural spaces that are no longer designed for a Christian majority, as that will likely no longer exist.
4. More evangelistic opportunities outside the church
Much of the growth among the religiously unaffiliated is the story of the nominals becoming the nones. Burge explains that “a lot of marginally attached people switched to ‘no religion’ on surveys over the last decade or two. Eventually, there weren’t that many marginally attached folks anymore.” Those who remain Christian are likely those who are committed to their faith and unlikely to leave anytime soon. This gives churches an opportunity.
Previously, Christians have often shared the gospel and found the other person also identifies as a Christian, despite not having any outward signs of following Jesus. Now, those individuals have likely moved to the nones group. With that comes a better understanding of their actual faith beliefs and commitments.
Christians likely won’t encounter as many nominal Christians as in the past, so gospel conversations can be more direct. There probably won’t be as much need to attempt to argue with someone that they actually aren’t a Christian. They’ll probably agree with you.
5. Potential evangelistic opportunities inside the church
There’s also a case to be made that a different confusion around the label of Christian has emerged in recent years. The old nominal Christian may be replaced by a new version.
Someone may be attending your church, living an outwardly moral life, and identifying as a Christian while not holding to any of the core doctrines of the faith. They may assume the term is more of a political or social signifier than a religious belief system and commitment to following Jesus.
“There's a case to be made that a different confusion around the label of Christian has emerged in recent years. The old nominal Christian may be replaced by a new version.” — @WardrobeDoor Share on XThis group should serve as a reminder to continue preaching and sharing the gospel during church services. Even though most of those who remain may be committed to the faith, there will likely still be some who are there for other reasons. Besides, even those who’ve embraced the gospel still need to be continually reminded of its truth and beauty.
The coming religious landscape in the U.S. will undoubtedly look different than it does now. But some things will never change. Christians will still need to live committed to Jesus and share the gospel with those around them. Churches will still need to disciple those involved and preach the gospel at all times.
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