Does the current research indicate a reversal in the decline of Christianity in the U.S. or a mere pause? That is yet to be determined.
By Aaron Earls
Recent Pew Research data further confirmed Christianity is no longer shrinking in America. Currently, the U.S. is no longer becoming less religious. We’ve reached the end of the rise of the nones.
Unfortunately, many Christians commenting on these findings are making the same mistakes irreligious leaders made when discussing the previous trends. They’re making unfounded assumptions about the future based on selected readings of the current data.
Pew Research’s recent Religious Landscape Study potentially marks the present moment as more of a pause instead of a reversal in the decline of Christianity and the growth of the nonreligious in the U.S. But as is often the case with statistics and predictions based on them, it’s complicated.
Fewer religious young adults
Compared to previous generations, younger generations are by far less religious. Those born in the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s are less likely than those born earlier to pray daily, attend religious services at least monthly, believe in God with absolute certainty, and identify as Christians. They’re also more likely to identify as religiously unaffiliated.
Those born in the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s are less likely than those born earlier to pray daily, attend religious services at least monthly, believe in God with certainty, and identify as Christians, according to Pew Research. Share on XFor example, among 24-34-year-olds, 31% pray daily, 24% attend religious services regularly, 42% believe in God without a doubt, and 46% say they are a Christian. Meanwhile, among those 64-74, 53% pray every day, 38% regularly attend religious services, 64% believe in God with absolute certainty, and 75% identify as a Christian.
We can trace much of the current situation back to changes in the typical childhood of someone in America.
Less religious upbringings
Among those born in the 1950s, 89% say they were raised Christian. Among those born in the 1990s, 73% were raised Christian. Those 64-74 are more likely than those 24-34 to say they attended religious services as a child weekly or more (66% v. 50%) and received a lot of formal religious education as a child (45% v. 29%).
However, despite the lack of religious activities and their current beliefs, younger generations are just as likely as older generations to say religion was important to their families growing up. Those born in the ’90s are just as likely as those born in the ’50s to say religion was very important to their family when they were growing up (46% v. 45%).
Still, the percentage of people who grew up in families that regularly attended church and placed a high value on their faith is important. Those are the ones most likely to be doing the same as adults.
Among those who were raised in a specific faith, attended religious services weekly, and were part of a family in which religion was very important, 74% still identify with the religion of their childhood. Another 10% belong to a different religion, but that includes those who moved from one strain of Christianity to another, like Protestantism to Catholicism. Just 15% say they’re religiously unaffiliated.
Among those who were raised in a specific faith but seldom attended services growing up and belonged to a family in which religion was not too important or not important at all, only 42% still identify with that faith, 16% are part of a different religion, and 40% say they have no religious faith.
Fewer attending religious services
But beyond religious identification, passing on the habit of church attendance grows more difficult with each passing generation. Among those who grew up in the 1940s and say they attended religious services weekly and religion was very important in their families, 51% still attend services weekly and say religion is very important today. Among those with the same religious background who grew up in the ’90s, 29% say they still regularly attend and highly value religion.
On the other hand, Pew Research found churches are not reaching a high percentage of the people who grew up away from religious life, especially among the younger generations. Among those who grew up seldom or never attending religious services and in a family in which religion was not too or not at all important, almost 7 in 10 still rarely attend services and don’t see religion as important to their lives, including 69% of those born in the ’80s, 72% of those born in the ’90s, and 76% of those born from 2000-06.
Among parents of children under 18, 66% say they grew up attending religious services at least monthly, including 54% who say they attended at least weekly. Around a third (34%) attended less often, including 20% who attended seldom or never. As parents, those percentages reverse. Only around a third (35%) regularly attend services today, with 26% attending weekly. Two in 3 (65%) attend a few times a year or less, including 45% who seldom or never attend.
Additionally, younger adults are less likely to be church members. Around half of those born in the ’50s (47%) say they are a member of a religious congregation compared to a quarter of those born in the ’90s (26%).
Religious switching away from Christianity
Overall, 80% of U.S. adults were raised Christian, but fewer than 3 in 4 say they still are. Most of the former Christians are now religiously unaffiliated (24%). For every one person who becomes a Christian but wasn’t raised as such, six people leave Christianity after being raised in the faith. Among the religiously unaffiliated, the ratio is the opposite. For every one person who leaves to join a faith, 5.9 enter who no longer identify with a religion. The ratio is much worse for Catholics (8.4 lost to every 1 gained) than it is for Protestants (1.8 lost to 1 gained).
For every one person who becomes a Christian but wasn’t raised as such, six people leave Christianity after being raised in the faith, according to Pew Research. Share on XAdditionally, while younger generations are less likely to have been raised in a religious faith, including Christianity, they are more likely than previous generations to leave that faith behind as adults. Among those born in the ’50s and raised as Christians, more than 4 in 5 remain so. For those born in the ’90s, fewer than 3 in 5 still identify as Christian.
Signs of hope
Still, the research is not all negative. Younger generations may not currently be full of Bible-believing and practicing Christians. But neither are they teeming with hardened atheists or secular materialists.
While 89% of 64-74-year-olds believe people have a soul or spirit in addition to their physical body, 83% of those 24-34 agree. Similarly, 84% of 64-74-year-olds and 75% of 24-34-year-olds say there is something spiritual beyond the natural world.
Similar percentages of those born in the ’50s and those born in the ’90s say they feel a deep sense of spiritual peace and well-being at least monthly (59% v. 53%) and feel the presence of something from beyond this world at least monthly (46% v. 42%).
Additionally, younger generations are more likely to say they feel a deep sense of wonder about the universe at least monthly. Almost 2 in 3 24-34-year-olds (65%) have that sense compared to 59% of 64-74-year-olds.
Younger adults are slightly less likely than older generations to say they have become more spiritual throughout their lives—48% of those born in the ’50s and 39% of those born in the ’90s. Some of that may be attributed to older adults having more time to make that transition.
Religion in the next generation
In analysis of the Cooperative Election Study, religion researcher Ryan Burge found that while the nones continued to grow among older generations in recent years, young generations became suddenly less likely to identify as religiously unaffiliated.
The religiously unaffiliated in older generations—the silent generation and the boomers—continued to grow in recent years, rising to 21% of those born between 1925-45 and 28% of those born between 1946-64. The percentage of the nones has plateaued among Gen X, hovering around a third since 2016.
Among both millennials and Generation Z, the most recent studies show a decline in the percentage who say they have no religious affiliation. After rising steadily from 33% in 2008 to 44% in 2022, the percentage of millennials who have no religious affiliation fell back to 42%. Among Gen Z, the growth from 39% in 2016 to 48% in 2022 was followed by a drop to 42% in 2023.
The current picture of religion in the U.S. is complicated, and any potential future projections are even more so. As some experts on ministry to the next generation have suggested, Gen Z is simultaneously experiencing a revival and a retreat from faith. As a result, the church should make no assumptions. Instead, we must dedicate ourselves to retaining those in our congregations and reaching those outside them.
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